There's a way to measure how much bitcoin holders are suffering. In the three winters that have already ended, that measure says something that repeats — and in the current cycle it hasn't repeated.
At the three previous bottoms, bitcoin holders were losing money on average. At this cycle's low, they weren't. And each time they were losing less: 0.564 → 0.690 → 0.754 → 1.103.
Every bitcoin in existence last moved at a certain price. Adding up all those prices gives what the coins in circulation cost on average: what holders as a whole paid.
Comparing that with what it's worth today gives a very simple number. Below 1, the average holder is at a loss. Above, in profit. That measure is called MVRV, and it's one of the few things in this market that can be calculated without giving an opinion.
| Cycle bottom | The measure | Price that day |
|---|---|---|
| 14 January 2015 | 0,564 | 176 $ |
| 15 December 2018 | 0,690 | 3.185 $ |
| 9 November 2022 | 0,754 | 15.758 $ |
| 30 June 2026 · low so far | 1,103 | 58.525 $ |
4,963 days of data, from 1 January 2013 to 3 August 2026. The June 2026 low is provisional: until the cycle closes, we don't know whether it was the bottom.
The number rises cycle after cycle, and there are reasonable explanations. The simplest: there are fewer and fewer desperate people. In 2015 almost everyone holding bitcoin had bought it out of curiosity and could sell it in a panic. Today there are listed funds, companies holding it on their balance sheets and people who haven't touched it in ten years. That money doesn't get scared the same way.
And there's an uncomfortable explanation, which also has to be stated: that the pattern doesn't exist and these four numbers are four coincidences in a row. With four observations, both are possible.
So as not to accept a threshold just because it's always been used. The usual rule is “when it drops below 1, that's the moment”. If the number rises cycle after cycle, that 1 might not come back — and whoever is waiting for it may end up waiting forever.
That doesn't mean the moment has already passed, or that anything needs to be done. It means something more useful: fixed thresholds age. A market with listed funds and companies in it doesn't behave like one of hobbyists, and a line drawn in 2015 has no reason to hold in 2026.
It doesn't say where the bottom is. It doesn't say June's was it. It doesn't say you should buy, or when. And it doesn't say the pattern will continue: they're four observations, and you can't make a rule with four. Our own standard demands thirty cases before changing anything, and here we're nowhere near.
With a measure you can check yourself: compare what it's worth today with what it cost on average. It works for bitcoin and for almost anything where you know what price people bought at.
And with a healthy suspicion: when someone gives you a threshold — “below X it's cheap” — ask how old that threshold is and whether the market that produced it looks like today's. It almost never does.
If you want to keep pulling the thread
The other reports are at sophronepsis.com/informes.html. There's also the one on the hash ribbon, which measures something else entirely: who is being forced to sell.
And if you want to learn to look at this on your own, the six-day walkthrough is at app.sophronepsis.com/empieza.
A report is a snapshot of one day. Inside the platform the measurements are redone when new data arrives, every strategy comes with its test alongside it, and the mentor answers whatever you ask, at any hour. sophronepsis.com/mentoria.html
Measured over 4,963 days of public bitcoin price and chain data, from 1-Jan-2013 to 3-Aug-2026. Four bottoms, three of them closed. Educational content, not financial advice. We don't sell signals or manage third-party capital. Familia FVR · Sophronepsis.